Current Event #7: Agencies Suspect Iran Is Planning Atomic Sites

Click here to read The New York Times article dated March 27th, 2010. Following the discovery of a secret nuclear enrichment site in Iran, both Western agencies and international inspectors believe that Iran may be preparing to continue to deny the demands of the UN Security Council. UN inspectors are currently investigating the possibility of two sites following alarming comments by Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEA). Since Obama's public announcement of the Iranian site at Qum last year, the United States has fought an uphill battle in trying to persuade China and Russia to go along with its sanctions. American officials currently share suspicion with the I.A.E.A. and are looking to satellite evidence to discover new Iranian sites. Several months ago, Iran claimed that it would attempt to build 10 new sites in the near future. This seems unlikely, however, given the time and complexity involved with building new plants. The most worrisome evidence includes the indicators that Iran is secretly producing enrichment equipment, such as centrifuges, for later use. The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is currently being prepared for President Obama to evaluate the present situation. Tehran leaders insist that the plant at Qum, as well as others, are in use for peaceful purposes. Many claim this is unlikely. In 2003, Iran came to an agreement with the I.A.E.A. to turn over information on any new plants. In 2007, Iran began to disregard this agreement. This article is important because it deals with international relations between both Iran and the world, as well as the US, Russia, and China in making and enforcing sanctions.

Click here to see the picture of I.A.E.A. Director General from flickr!

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Iraq's elections: Give everyone a voice

Click here to read the Economist article, "Iraq's elections: Give everyone a voice". This article talks about how the election is close, but so far successful. Depending on the actions of the losing candidate, it could be a very successful election and transition of power. The article talks about "coalitions" forming of different ethnic and religious groups within the country to unite under political candidates. The article also talks about how a sovereign Iraq and a large stable democracy in the Middle East can be a good thing for the entire region. This will certainly effect Iran who right now is moving away from a liberal democracy. It would be to Iran's overall benefit to help Iraq, although they might oppose Iran's quest for nuclear weapons against the UN's wishes for fear of military intervention from Israel. This article is important because it talks about the process of moving towards a democracy and the effect democracies have on their neighboring countries. Grade this post.

Post #7 Iran tightens gasoline rations, cuts subsidies

Click here to read the BBC News article "Iran tightens petrol rations as economic sanctions loom," written on Wednesday, March 17th.
The Iranian government has announced that it is to begun reducing petrol rations by 25% starting March 21, the beginning of the Iranian New Year. Prior to the cutbacks, Iranian citizens were allotted 80 liters of gasoline per month, at the cost of ten cents per liter, and 40 cents for every liter over the 80 liter limit. With the initiation of the rations, that petrol cap now becomes 60 liters per month.
The new rations are believed to be a result of concern in regards to the possibility of new economic sanctions as a result of the controversy over Iran's nuclear weapons program. Iran consumes 65 million liters of petrol per day, and imports a third of that amount. A variety of energies have already ceased trading with Iran after facing pressure from the United States. The government of Iran has pledged to increase its local petrol production by 13 million liters per day, as a safeguard to any further sanctions.
General Mohammad Rouyanian, the head of Iran's Transportation and Fuel management committee, has stated that the increased rations will last for only three months, but may be increased if needed.
Fuel is Iran's only worry; the country still faces inflation, and a lack of revenue. Iran heavily subsidizes its energy and food services. This has caused problems for the government, who recently decided to remove $200 billion dollars worth of subsidies. President Ahmadinejad was believed to have wanted a significantly larger sum removed, but Iranian MPs believe that it could triple the country's inflation, which only recently decreased to 11.3%.
This relates to comparative government because it deals with public policy and legitimacy. By increasing rations and requiring citizens to pay more for everday activities, it may adversely affect the way they view their government, which is already beset from all sides by controversy and challenges from Mousavi's opposition party. Also, by altering the way the country is run, Iran could be seen as not being as formidable and protected by the West as it claims to be, which might affect future negations.

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Photo courtesy of Tehran Times

"EU Pressures Iran to End Jamming" #7

To read the BBC article, "EU Pressures Iran to End Jamming" click here. Since the widespread protests against the Iranian government took place in France, Iran has been intentionally blocking satellite broadcasts from international channels. According to the EU foreign ministers they have demanded that Iran stop interfering with the broadcasts immediately. Some believe that the EU will impose trade sanctions that would stop Nokia Siemens, a mobile network company, from trading in Iran. The US has supported the possibility of the UN placing very burdensome sanctions on Iran since the beginning of the year but these sanctions have been stopped by China and Russia. However, these EU sanctions would be completely separate from any sanctions the US is pushing for. Alexander Stubb, Finland's foreign minister, has said that a resolutions remains the goal but that as time runs out they may have to place unilateral sanctions on Iran. This relates to what we have been learning in comparative government because any sanctions placed on Iran would hurt their economy which, in turn would hurt their government's legitimacy in the eyes of not only the people of Iran, but also of the rest of the world.



*Thank you to the BBC for the pictures
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Post #7: Iran’s Opposition Seeks More Help in Cyberwar With Government

Click here to read The New York Times article, "Iran's Opposition Seeks More Help in Cyberwar with Government," from March 18th, 2010. In Iran, democracy advocates have been celebrating the United States's recent decision to remove sanctions on online services. While these sanctions against online services were initially enforced to restrict the development of nuclear technology, they ended up being used by Tehran to further suppress opposition. Now, Iranian internet users will be able to download new software to defeat the government's blocking of certain websites. Opposition leaders claim that access to the web, social networking sites, and satellite TV are important in bringing people together and keeping them informed. As the Iranian government has finally realized the threat of these tools, they have began efforts to block websites such as Twitter, Yahoo, and Google, as well as news channels like Voice of American TV and BBC Persian. The government has arrested many "cyberexperts" recently, accusing many of "waging war against God" and has set aside a $500 million budget for cyberwarfare. Iran is currently dependent on foreign corporations for broadcasting, and many companies have been hesitant to make deals due to Iran's violation of international regulations. While the lifting of these sanctions improve the situation of activists, many still believe that more change needs to come in the future. According to Mr. Khonini, a visitor at Stanford, "this is about democracy and the fact that when people have access to information, they can make wise choices. No one, even the current leaders of the opposition, can hijack the movement like the way the Islamists did in the 1979 revolution if people can have access to free information." This article is important because it has to do with the legitimacy, transparency, and freedoms granted by the Iranian government, as well as its international standing.

Click here for the image from herzogbr of flickr!

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Renewed diplomatic efforts over Iran's nuclear activities

Click here to read the Economist article "The week ahead". This article talks about how the United States is continuing to solve political conflicts in the Middle East. The two big problems right now are Iran and their assumed pursuit of the nuclear bomb and the Israel and Palestinian problem. With Russia and China, two members of the UN Security Council both economically involved with Iran, passing Economic sanctions will prove to be a challenge. Hillary Clinton is working on UN sanctions against Iran while Joe Biden and George Mitchell, the President's envoy, work on Israeli issues. The announcement that the Bushehr nuclear power plant will be working in a few months has kept the pressure on trying to get sanctions against Iran. This article is important because it shows the continued efforts of world powers to use nonviolent actions to solve international problems. Economic relations are very important and the success of Iranian negations will reflect public opinion on politicians in the United States and abroad. Grade this post. .

Week #6; Iran's Ace (or Deuce) - Its Oil Reserves

To read the full New York Times article, click here. The article Iran's Ace (or Deuce) - Its Oil Reserves is about Iran believing that they are not going to be easily influenced by sanctions in Washington because they believe that they will have future ties to China, Russia, and France through their energy resources. Iran further tried to prove this point by occupying a disputed oil field on the Iraqi border, this was to serve as a reminder that Iran is not happy with Iraq getting foreign oil investments and to show Iran's ability to stop traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is currently Beijing's second biggest oil supplier behind Saudi Arabia and a year ago China National Petroleum Organization signed a 4.7 billion dollar contract to finish developing one huge Iranian gas field and an understanding that they would eventually develop and oil field. However, Iran's recent ability to make nuclear weapons has caused the European idea for investing to cool off and even Russia has been more in favor of sanctions. It seems as if Iran is counting on the Chinese to back them when it comes to the US and the Security Council creating international sanctions that could really hurt Iran, but so far, China has shown reluctance to go against the US particularly when it comes to the Persian Golf. As for the strength of Iran's energy sector, they have very few refineries, import 40% of their gasoline, and have to keep oil prices above $90 a barrel to keep their budget balanced, not to mention that there is no longer a shortage of oil and most of the excess is in Saudi Arabia. This article relates to what we have been studying because the Iranian government is trying to prove their legitimacy through international contracts and their economy, but the fact that some countries seem to be doubting whether or not it will work could hurt their Iranian government's legitimacy.



**Thanks to SisPau of Flickr for the image
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Post #6 Iranian Authorities Arrest Filmmaker Who Supported Opposition

Click here to read the New York Times article "Iran Arrests Filmmaker Who Backed Opposition", written on March 2nd.
Prominent Iranian filmmaker Jaffar Panahi, along with his wife, daughter and 15 other guests, were arrested last Tuesday.
Panahi has supported the opposition movement in Iran, as well as having had appeared at international film festivals outside of Iran wearing a green scarf, which is considered the trademark colour of the opposition party.
Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi said that Panahi had been arrested for committing "certain offenses" that were not related to his "profession or politics" but did not elaborate on any more specifics.
Panahi's arrest is the latest in what appears to be a pattern of arrests by the government in which they arrest prominent figures who support the opposition movement. Last December, Shahram Nazeri, a famous singer was briefly detained, and in January, Mehraneh Atashi, a well-known photographer and her husband were arrested with no explanation given for their arrests.
Iran is reported to have released a dozen detainees last monday, in order to relieve some pressure from human rights activists. But it is also believed that a huge number of people are still held within the prison system for dissent again the government. The Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that five followers of the Bahai faith were sentenced to ten-months in prison for spreading "propaganda against the regime."
Also on Tuesday, one of the 20,000 people arrested in Tehran on February 11, when the government stopped an opposition rally, gave new insight into his capture. The prisoner said that he was held "with 50 others, in a 130-square-foot cell where he said his cellmates were ruthlessly beaten."
This relates to what we've been learning in Comparative Government largely in terms of legitimacy and citizen's rights. If the Iranian Government continues to arrest people for no reason, or simply for disagreeing with the government, the country's legitimacy is bound to falter, which will also occur if the citizens are beaten when they are arrested, as reported by one of the prisoners.

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Photo Courtest of Wikipedia

Post #6: U.S. Enriches Companies Defying Its Policy on Iran

Click here for a link to the March 6th, 2010, New York Times Article, "U.S. Enriches Companies Defying Its Policy on Iran." Despite Washington's efforts to discourage investment in Iran, the United States has awarded billions of dollars in grants, contract payments, and various benefits to American companies who have done business in Iran. This includes the $15 billion given to companies who ignored American law through investments bolstering the development of Iran's gas and oil reserves. With the current nuclear crisis, the Obama administration is currently trying to pass more United Nations sanctions against Iran. Its seems as if both the Bush and Obama administration sent conflicting messages when it comes to making economic deals with Iran, by rewarding companies whose monetary interests oppose American security goals. Most of these companies are in the oil or automobile industries, linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Obama's focus in his proposed sanctions. The companies making business deals with Iran have reaped a variety of benefits, including close to $4.5 billion in loans from the Export-Import Bank, which underwrites the export of American service and goods, and over $500 million in grants for research. Recently, many companies have chosen to pull out of Iran due to pressures by the United States, anti-terrorism campaigns by shareholders, and the obstacles involved with doing business with the Iranian government. Some, however, including 49 of the 74 companies identified by The New York Times staff, continue to do business with Iran. The United States' most powerful tool in cracking down is the Iran Sanctions Act, which punishes foreign companies which invest over $20 million in a year to develop Iranian gas and oil fields. Due to fear of angering American allies, however, this law has never been enforced. In addition, nineteen states have rules preventing or discouraging pension funds from investing in companies which perform business in Iran. Representative Ron Klein, a democrat from Florida and a member of United Against Nuclear Iran, is trying to make legislation federal and claims that "we need to send a strong message to corporations that we’re not going to continue to allow them to economically enable the Iranian government to continue to do what they have been doing." The Iran Sanctions Act currently stands as the United State's "unused tool." This law enables the president to enact a series of punishments against offending companies, but is difficult to enforce. John R. Bolton, the secretary of state and United Nations ambassador during the Bush administration, claims that failing to enforce the law sent a "signal to the Iranians that we're not serious" and ruined the credibility of the government when it later threatened action. As of late, 50 lawmakers from both parties convinced Obama and the State Department to begin a preliminary investigation of a list of companies that had violated the law by making deals with Iran. Many competing interests seem to be at hand. For example, among the list of companies is the Brazilian energy conglomerate Petrobras, which received a Export-Import loan of $2 billion last year for the development of an oil reserve. Despite American requests, Petrobras had previously invested millions in the exploration of Iran's oil prospects. At the same time, the Export-Import Bank loan could promote American job creation and develop oil sources outside the Middle East. Last year, the Obama administration received correspondence from Petrobras confirming its end of work in Iran. Ten days later, however, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Brazil and created a partnership involving the share of technical expertise on energy projects. This visit upset American officials who claimed that it lent international legitimacy to the Iranian president and undercut efforts to pressure Iran in reguards to its nuclear program. Due to Brazil's rotating seat on the Security Council, the partnership has complicated the American actions at the United Nations. Last week, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the president of Brazil, confirmed his opposition to the sanctions proposal by warning that "it is not prudent to push Iran against a wall." Despite questions of national security, Iran presents opportunities for profits. Auto companies, such as Mazda, and aviation and aerospace companies have made billions through federal contracts in Iran through loopholes. As it stands, companies can invest in Iran through foreign subsidiaries controlled by non-Americans. Senator Bryon L. Dorgan, a democrat from North Dakota tried to close this loophole, but was unable to overcome business opposition. William A. Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, strongly opposed Mr. Dorgan's bill to end this loophole. While Reinsch argues that ending trade with Iran will result in replacement by foreign competitors, and claims that "its those workers who will pay the price," Hans Sandlberg, vice president of Atlas Copco, a Swedish company says its sales of construction and mining equipment to Iran are stunted by American business, but would gladly choose amiable American relations over trade with Iran. This article is important because it involves the legitimacy of both Iran and its president and the balance between economic advancement and national security.

Click here to see the picture, thanks to riacale of flickr!


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